EYE on the World - WHAT a Week! China, Hong Kong, Japan, Greece...

WHAT a Week!

 Chinese Exports #Meltdown by 25.4% YOY 

  

China’s export slump deepened in February, highlighting the challenge for policy makers seeking to keep the economy humming at home while trade acts as a brake on growth. 

The week-long Chinese new year holidays fell in February this year, closing factories and curbing shipments. That saw exports tumble 25.4 percent in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports extended a streak of declines to 16 months, slumping 13.8 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $32.6 billion. 

http://pwa2100.blogspot.ca/2016/03/chinese-exports-meltdown-by-254-yoy.html

Bond Yields Sinking to Crazy New Lows

Government bond yields in Japan on Tuesday fell to record lows, and the ripple effect pushed down yields in the U.S., Germany and the U.K.

Strong auction demand for a 30-year Japanese government bond sent investors piling into bonds. The buying sent the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note below 1.9% again and stalled the yield’s uptick momentum over the past month. As bond prices rise, yields fall. 

http://pwa2100.blogspot.ca/2016/03/bond-yields-sinking-to-crazy-new-lows.html

Hong Kong YOY Home Sales Meltdown, UNREAL 70%

The End of Good Times  

"Home prices in the city surged 370 percent from their 2003 trough through the September peak, spurred by low mortgage rates, tight supply of new units and buying from mainland Chinese. This year, BOCOM International Holdings Co. property analyst Alfred Lau has said prices could fall 30 percent amid a slowdown."

http://pwa2100.blogspot.ca/2016/03/hong-kong-yoy-home-sales-meltdown.html

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 Optimism Over Climate Change Progress Premature?

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Comments

These are just a few of the possible facts out there that contradict Al Gore's assertions that we are somehow making progress. Have the icecaps stopped melting? Just saying we are reducing  carbon emissions 

​or made a bunch more solar cells  and so on,  ​

should not give anyone 

​real ​

comfort.  The state  and trends for all positive 

​climate ​

feedbacks loops needs to be identified  and monitored, otherwise we have no comprehensive idea as to what 

​the true ​

 

​trends and ​

state  the climate system is   

​- ​

along with the other integral biosphere systems that affect it.

​ ​

Let's be real and remember too that Al Gore is also a long-term politician who by the 

​ 

very nature of their roles often mislead, exaggerate and cloud the truth. Awareness of  these occupational hazards and habits alone speaks volumes , particularly as there is much  contrary evidence that the  comprehensive climate system is not improving.

​In

 sum, ​

it all sounds like more of the same ole political snake oil, so...​

http://www.drkinesa.blogspot.ca/2016/03/optimism-over-climate-change-progress.html

We're just not buying  it!

Reality Check: Saudi Arabia is Going Broke!

Road to Poor House?

"All the Saudis have done is create an existential crisis for  themselves.

If the Saudis don’t stop flooding the market—and there are no signs they will—they won’t be

 shooting themselves in the foot… but in the head. Saudi Arabia will either collapse or surrender—and stop flooding the market.

Either way, oil will eventually go a lot higher." 

http://pwa2000.blogspot.ca/2016/03/reality-check-saudi-arabia-is-going.html

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EIA's Predictions Questionable - OPEC Call is the Fudge Number!

Just How Accurate Are The EIA’s Predictions?

  

• Mahjoub Mohamed Salih, WNN news

  

The EIA recently published the February edition of their Short-Term Energy Outlook. If you follow this month to month, and we do, you will notice their prognostications change a little every month. And over several months those small changes can add up to some rather dramatic changes. Nevertheless, below are several charts with their current oil production projections.

The EIA STEO only gives monthly data for total liquids. All C+C data is quarterly and annually. The monthly projected data begins in February 2016. Projections for quarterly and annual data begins January 2016.

The EIA says Non-OPEC total liquids dropped .5 million barrels per day in December and another .36 mbd in January. But then, other than another short drop in the first quarter of 2017, they see things leveling out for the next two years.

For the total world, the EIA expects far better production numbers than just for Non-OPEC. They expect new highs to be reached in 2016 and again in 2017.

They see US total liquids dropping in 2016 then they begin a slow rise through 2017, but not overtaking the peak in 2015.

Apparently the EIA thinks Russia has had it. They see a drop in December 2016 then a huge drop in January  2017. We have no idea why. However the scale here makes the decline seem greater than it really is. From January 2015 to December 2017 the decline is only 400,000 barrels per day.

Adding the other FSU nations to the mix, mostly Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, only exacerbates the decline, making it half a million bpd between January 2015 and December 2017.

Looking at just Crude + Condensate you get a better picture of what the EIA really expects in the next two years.  They expect Non-OPEC C+C to drop 580,000 bpd in 2016 and another 170,000 bpd in 2017 for a total of 750,000 bpd over the two years.

They are expecting far better things out of OPEC's gang.  They have the OPEC gangs total liquids up 1,010,000 barrels per day in 2016 and another 870,000 bpd in 2017. They do not project OPEC C+C.

But taking a closer look at their US Projections:

The EIA expects US C+C to drop 740,000 barrels per day in 2016 and another 230,000 bpd in 2017 for a total decline over two years of 970,000 barrels per day. 

  

However they have US total liquids faring much better then just C+C. They have total liquids declining by only 490,000 barrels per day in 2016 and increasing by 100,000 bpd in 2017.

What this means is that US “Other Liquids”, that is NGLs, biofuels and refinery process gain must show a very impressive gains while everything else is going to pot. They show other liquids increasing by 250,000 bpd in 2016 and another 330,000 bpd in 2017. 

Most of this increase has to come from NGLs as biofuels are only a minor input and refinery process gain pretty much follows C+C consumption. But…

 

Using their projections for Dry Gas production we find that gas production increased more than other liquids increased in 2015. However they say gas production will increase by only .4 percent in 2016 while other liquids increase by 4.6 percent, and a similar story in 2017 though not quite as dramatic.

Bottom line: We find the EIA’s past production data very accurate. However their projections appear to be pretty lame. This observation is proven out by the fact that those projections are constantly changing. Also, those “Other Liquids” projections seem to make no sense whatsoever. It appears to be mostly a fudge.  

But the very biggest problem with the EIA’s projections are with OPEC. That is because it is not a projection at all but an estimate of what will be needed to meet world demand. That is they estimate Non-OPEC production, then they estimate world demand, and the difference between the two will be the “Call on OPEC”. That is, they will simply expect OPEC to make up the difference, whatever that difference may be.

Lately, however, OPEC seems to be producing a lot more than their call asked them to. That is, they appear to be ignoring their call. And they will likely do likewise when they are expected to produce more to meet demand. They are all currently producing flat out and if there is a call on them to produce more, it will very likely go unanswered. 

WE thus  expect the “Call on OPEC” is a running joke between OPEC nations.

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