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Sunday 30 August 2015

Financial Advice Fails - As Everybody Becomes Poorer



Platinum Wealth Partners’ Insights

There are tipping point indicators in  any directions you care to explore. Stock markets are being crushed, economies are heading towards long slumps, Europe faces a migration crisis, technology doesn't help, and moreover - everyone is becoming poorer. 


A deeper look into these indicators and many more; suggests we are operating beyond the planet's physical capacities and the constraints imposed by limits to growth.

August 27, 2015




Real Household Net Worth:

 Look Out Below?


In my last post I pointed out that over the last half century, every time the year-over-year change in Real Household Net Worth went negative (real household wealth decreased), a recession had either started, or was about to.  (One bare exception: a tiny decline in Q4 2011, which looks rather like turbulence following The Big Whatever.) Throughout, click for source. - 




The problem: we don’t see this quarterly number until three+ months after the end of a quarter, when the Fed releases its Z.1 report for the the preceding quarter. The Q2 2015 report is due September 18.

But right now we might be able to roughly predict what we’re going to see four+ months from now, in the report on our current quarter, Q3, which ends September 30. We’re a bit over a month from the end the quarter, and we have some numbers to hand.

The U.S. equity markets are down roughly 7% year-over-year


South Africa's economy contracts, risk of recession grows




PRETORIA (Reuters) - South Africa's economy shrank for the first time in more than a year during the second quarter of 2015, raising the risk that labour disputes and slowing Chinese demand for commodities could push it towards recession.
The economic strain will inhibit the central bank from raising rates further to protect a weak currency and target inflation, while also torpedoing government efforts to keep deficits in check and protect its credit ratings.




Afghan migrants arrive on the Greek island of Kos after crossing from Turkey to Greece

A record 107,500 migrants crossed the EU borders last month to outstrip the previous monthly record in June of 70,000. During the first seven months there were nearly 340,000 migrants, up from 123,500 last year,




Warring Migrant Tribes, Grenade Attacks…What Is Going On In Sweden?

A Police officer secures on December 16,
if you bring intolerant people into your country this is what can happen






















Not only how we deal with the world and make sense of it, or interact with each other, but also how we look at ourselves and understand our own nature, existence, and responsibilities. 
This is the IT version of my book The Great Field (available in Kindle books).






$2.1 Trillion Erased From U.S. Stocks In Six Days


The enormous losses reflect the deep fears gripping markets about how the world economy will fare amid a deepening economic slowdown in China.

The DowS&P 500 and Nasdaq have all tumbled into correction territory, their first such 10% decline from a recent high since 2011.
The S&P 500 -- the best barometer for the biggest U.S. companies -- has lost trillions of market value in the six-day selloff through Tuesday, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
To put those losses into perspective, that's roughly equal to the combined market value of these corporate titans put together:
 Apple (AAPLTech30)Google(GOOGLTech30)Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)ExxonMobil (XOM)Facebook (FBTech30)Walmart(WMT) and 21st Century Fox (FOXA).



Originally Published 

Saturday 29 August 2015

Financial Advice Fails - As Everybody Becomes Poorer

Platinum Wealth Partners’ Insights

There are tipping point indicators in  any directions you care to explore. Stock markets are being crushed, economies are heading towards long slumps, Europe faces a migration crisis, technology doesn't help, and moreover - everyone is becoming poorer. 

A deeper look into these indicators and many more; suggests we are operating beyond the planet's physical capacities and the constraints imposed by limits to growth.


August 27, 2015




Real Household Net Worth:


 Look Out Below?


In my last post I pointed out that over the last half century, every time the year-over-year change in Real Household Net Worth went negative (real household wealth decreased), a recession had either started, or was about to.  (One bare exception: a tiny decline in Q4 2011, which looks rather like turbulence following The Big Whatever.) Throughout, click for source. - 




The problem: we don’t see this quarterly number until three+ months after the end of a quarter, when the Fed releases its Z.1 report for the the preceding quarter. The Q2 2015 report is due September 18.

But right now we might be able to roughly predict what we’re going to see four+ months from now, in the report on our current quarter, Q3, which ends September 30. We’re a bit over a month from the end the quarter, and we have some numbers to hand.

The U.S. equity markets are down roughly 7% year-over-year


South Africa's economy contracts, risk of recession grows




PRETORIA (Reuters) - South Africa's economy shrank for the first time in more than a year during the second quarter of 2015, raising the risk that labour disputes and slowing Chinese demand for commodities could push it towards recession.
The economic strain will inhibit the central bank from raising rates further to protect a weak currency and target inflation, while also torpedoing government efforts to keep deficits in check and protect its credit ratings.




Afghan migrants arrive on the Greek island of Kos after crossing from Turkey to Greece

A record 107,500 migrants crossed the EU borders last month to outstrip the previous monthly record in June of 70,000. During the first seven months there were nearly 340,000 migrants, up from 123,500 last year,



Warring Migrant Tribes, Grenade Attacks…What Is Going On In Sweden?

A Police officer secures on December 16,
if you bring intolerant people into your country this is what can happen


























Not only how we deal with the world and make sense of it, or interact with each other, but also how we look at ourselves and understand our own nature, existence, and responsibilities. 
This is the IT version of my book The Great Field (available in Kindle books).






$2.1 Trillion Erased From U.S. Stocks In Six Days


The enormous losses reflect the deep fears gripping markets about how the world economy will fare amid a deepening economic slowdown in China.

The DowS&P 500 and Nasdaq have all tumbled into correction territory, their first such 10% decline from a recent high since 2011.
The S&P 500 -- the best barometer for the biggest U.S. companies -- has lost trillions of market value in the six-day selloff through Tuesday, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
To put those losses into perspective, that's roughly equal to the combined market value of these corporate titans put together:
 Apple (AAPLTech30)Google(GOOGLTech30)Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA)ExxonMobil (XOM)Facebook (FBTech30)Walmart(WMT) and 21st Century Fox (FOXA).


Originally Published 

Thursday 27 August 2015

Greenspan Warns Exuberant " Bond Bubble To Bust

Greenspan Warns About Bond-Market Bubble





: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is sounding the alarm about a bubble that he believes is forming in the bond market.
In two television interviews in recent days, Greenspan said interest rates could shoot higher and derail the economy when the bubble bursts.
The former Fed chairman says the current situation in the bond market is comparable to what happens in the stock market during an equity bubble.
Noting that stock-market bubbles are typically characterized by extreme price-to-earnings ratios, Greenspan said extremely low yields are telling a similar tale for bonds.
“If you turn the bond market around and you look at the price of bonds relative to the interest received by those bonds, that looks very much like the usual spread which would concern us if it were equities, and we should be concerned,” Greenspan said in an interview with Fox Business Network.








There are China analysts, and then there is Charlene Chu.
She has been called a rock star of Chinese-debt analysis. Money managers the world over pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to her research at her new firm Autonomous Research. Her reports are rarely leaked, and she rarely gives interviews.

Business Insider got a glimpse at a massive report she wrote at the end of July.

This was when everyone was freaking out about the precipitous fall of China's stock markets, and it predates the Chinese authorities' decision to devalue the yuan.

Her base case in the report was for Chinese authorities to maintain stability of the equity market and forestall contagion.There is also a doomsday scenario, however, in which there is contagion to other domestic and international markets, large capital outflows, and an acceleration of problems associated with financial-sector weakness and corporate indebtedness.

The report said: "This in turn would likely lead to a significant pullback in credit, putting the brakes on GDP growth and bringing an end to China's decades of stellar economic growth. At that point, social and political stability — the critical wild cards in this equation — could come under question."

This is what doom looks like




Growth in OPEC’s biggest exporter will slow to 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2016 after oil prices slumped, the Washington-based IMF said in a statement on Monday. If spending isn’t curbed, its fiscal deficit would be “very large” this year and over the medium term, it added.








“Moody’s isn’t the only one predicting that growth will be slow to rebound,” said Ari Santos, a trader at Sao Paulo-based brokerage H.Commcor. “Looking forward, we’ll have a stagnant economy, with no growth and no outlook to grow.”











Protesters calling for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff march along Copacabana beach on Aug. 16, 2015.
In the midst of its deepest economic and political crisis in a generation, Brazil is contending with a business climate so punishing that major projects across numerous sectors are being frozen or shrunk, while small businesses slash prices and shift focus.









Singapore-based wealth managers, already under pressure from a global move towards tax information sharing, face a more immediate threat as Asian countries including Indonesia and India look to chase undeclared money in the low-tax city state. A global crackdown on tax evasion launched during the 2008 financial crisis has already forced Switzerland and other European offshore hubs to surrender their prized bank secrecy.


The combined deficit of private sector DB schemes in the UK

 now stands at around £900 billion, up from £250 billion

 since the start of the millennium, despite companies pouring

 in £500 billion towards pension saving over that time.

 According to Hymans Robertson, the stark figures highlight

 that for too long pension schemes have been taking too 

much risks




Originally Published

 Investors' Insights 

http://pwa2100.blogspot.ca/2015/08/greenspan-warns-exuberant-bond-bubble.html

Greenspan Warns Exuberant " Bond Bubble To Bust" & More Top Insights

Greenspan warns about bond-market bubble





: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is sounding the alarm about a bubble that he believes is forming in the bond market.
In two television interviews in recent days, Greenspan said interest rates could shoot higher and derail the economy when the bubble bursts.
The former Fed chairman says the current situation in the bond market is comparable to what happens in the stock market during an equity bubble.
Noting that stock-market bubbles are typically characterized by extreme price-to-earnings ratios, Greenspan said extremely low yields are telling a similar tale for bonds.
“If you turn the bond market around and you look at the price of bonds relative to the interest received by those bonds, that looks very much like the usual spread which would concern us if it were equities, and we should be concerned,” Greenspan said in an interview with Fox Business Network.






There are China analysts, and then there is Charlene Chu.
She has been called a rock star of Chinese-debt analysis. Money managers the world over pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to her research at her new firm Autonomous Research. Her reports are rarely leaked, and she rarely gives interviews.

Business Insider got a glimpse at a massive report she wrote at the end of July.

This was when everyone was freaking out about the precipitous fall of China's stock markets, and it predates the Chinese authorities' decision to devalue the yuan.

Her base case in the report was for Chinese authorities to maintain stability of the equity market and forestall contagion.There is also a doomsday scenario, however, in which there is contagion to other domestic and international markets, large capital outflows, and an acceleration of problems associated with financial-sector weakness and corporate indebtedness.

The report said: "This in turn would likely lead to a significant pullback in credit, putting the brakes on GDP growth and bringing an end to China's decades of stellar economic growth. At that point, social and political stability — the critical wild cards in this equation — could come under question."

This is what doom looks like




Growth in OPEC’s biggest exporter will slow to 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2016 after oil prices slumped, the Washington-based IMF said in a statement on Monday. If spending isn’t curbed, its fiscal deficit would be “very large” this year and over the medium term, it added.








“Moody’s isn’t the only one predicting that growth will be slow to rebound,” said Ari Santos, a trader at Sao Paulo-based brokerage H.Commcor. “Looking forward, we’ll have a stagnant economy, with no growth and no outlook to grow.”











Protesters calling for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff march along Copacabana beach on Aug. 16, 2015.
In the midst of its deepest economic and political crisis in a generation, Brazil is contending with a business climate so punishing that major projects across numerous sectors are being frozen or shrunk, while small businesses slash prices and shift focus.









Singapore-based wealth managers, already under pressure from a global move towards tax information sharing, face a more immediate threat as Asian countries including Indonesia and India look to chase undeclared money in the low-tax city state. A global crackdown on tax evasion launched during the 2008 financial crisis has already forced Switzerland and other European offshore hubs to surrender their prized bank secrecy.


The combined deficit of private sector DB schemes in the UK

 now stands at around £900 billion, up from £250 billion

 since the start of the millennium, despite companies pouring

 in £500 billion towards pension saving over that time.

 According to Hymans Robertson, the stark figures highlight

 that for too long pension schemes have been taking too 

much risks




Originally Published

 Investors' Insights 

http://pwa2100.blogspot.ca/2015/08/greenspan-warns-exuberant-bond-bubble.html